Palm Brackets
College Basketball coverage by Jerry Palm.
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I added a new feature to the site that I think you will like. It is a Team Comparison Tool, which allows you to compare the tournament resumes of two teams side by side. Try it out and let me know how you like it. Or if you like it.
I did not miss any teams in the bracket projection and also had the correct first four out, so I'm pleased with that.
I thought the committee did a pretty good job. Things more or less took care of themselves. My primary complaint is that I thought they underseeded Vanderbilt, which could have been a three after beating Florida, but no worse than a four in the end.
I was also disappointed to hear that VCU was on the chopping block if the Rams had lost to Dayton. Oklahoma had a WAB of 49 and was three games below .500 against the top three quadrants, which is not the kind of thing that normally merits an at-large bid.
I was also a bit surprised that Purdue was elevated to a two seed after beating Michigan. In doing so, they likely had to jump, or already be ahead of, three-seeds Illinois and Michigan State, each of which were among the five teams to beat the Boilermakers at home this season.
Without further ado, here's my bracket. Mock me at your peril. Or more likely mine.
I like Kansas when Darryn Peterson is healty and they get a No. 1 seed in Duke that is not at full strength.
I picked Illinois because their size can be a matchup problem for a lot of teams and they get good guard play, especially from Keaton Wagler.
Arizona and Michigan have been dominant teams all season long, the Wolverines loss to Purdue on Sunday notwithstanding. Michigan's length is a problem. BIg Ten POY Yaxel Lendeborg is 6'9" and can guard 1-5.
It was another thrilling day of college hoops and at 6 p.m. ET, or whenever the Purdue-Michigan game ends, we finally get to see the bracket.
My semifinal bracket is up now. It may get adjusted later if today's results merit a change.
Florida remains a 1-seed following a blowout loss to Vanderbilt in part because UConn and Houston both lost. I kept them both on the 2-line.
Vanderbilt moved up to a 3-seed, passing Virginia, which lost a tight game to Duke. That move was more about Vandy than the Cavaliers.
Saint Louis lost to Dayton in the A-10 semifinal but remains in the bracket. That could be a bid stealer, but the bid that may get stolen is VCU's if the Rams lose to the Flyers in the title game today. Their last meeting at Dayton on March 6 was a back and forth slugfest that VCU won 68-62.
San Diego State fell out of the bracket following the loss to Utah State in the Mountain West title game. The Aztecs are my first team out. That makes the conference as a one-bid league.
It has not been a great conference tournament season for the top seeds. Three of them play today. If any loses, then fewer than half of the top seeds will have won their tournaments.
Last four in: Missouri, SMU, Miami-OH, Texas
First four out: San Diego St, Oklahoma, Auburn,
Indiana
This may be the most exciting day of the season. Eleven conferences are playing championship games and handing out automatic bids.
The Mountain West championship is noteworthy in that San Diego State is the last team in my bracket this morning. The Aztecs play regular season champ Utah State for a chance to get off the bubble. It's a rare case where they could steal their own bid.
We finally had some movement at the top of the bracket projection this morning. Well, not the top line. Those teams seem locked in.
The movement was largely due to a good day for the lower seeds in the Big Ten quarterfinals. Wisconsin, Purdue and UCLA all moved up one seed line from yesterday following wins over Illinois, Nebraska and Michigan State respectively. In today's semifinals, the Badgers will try to beat Michigan for the second time this season away from home, while Purdue will look for revenge against the Bruins, which won the regular season meeting in LA.
Alabama and Arkansas each moved one seed line following the Razorbacks win over Oklahoma and Alabama's loss to Ole Miss. they are now both 4-seeds. The 15-seed Rebels are two wins away from stealing a bid.
Last four in: SMU, VCU, Miami-OH, San Diego St
First four out: Oklahoma, Auburn,
Texas, Indiana
There was quite a bit of shuffling in the bracket except for the top four seeds. None of them lost yesterday, but we are guaranteed to see some fall today.
For now, Miami-OH is in the bracket starting in Dayton as the second-to-last team in. Their WAB ranking this morning is 37. For more on Miami and the WAB, see the article below.
Auburn dropped out of the bracket after losing to Tennessee to drop to 17-16 on the season. No team fewer than two games above .500 has ever received an at-large bid and unlike Miami's profile, the Tigers' WAB is on the edge of the range that contains the at-large teams. At least based on last year, which is all we have.
Texas, like all the teams on the first four out list, have not done enough to overcome a not quite good enough WAB ranking. Oklahoma and New Mexico are still playing though.
See Bubble Watch for more on these teams and others.
Last four in: SMU, VCU, Miami-OH, San Diego St
First four out: Oklahoma, Auburn,
New Mexico, Texas
Updated the March 4 original now that it will be tested
WAB - Wins Above Bubble - is a measure of how many wins a team has against its schedule vs. how many wins an average bubble team would have against the same schedule. It was added to the team sheets for the first time last season and may have had a role in North Carolina's controversial selection as an at-large team. Dan Gavitt, the Vice President of Men's Basketball at the NCAA recently said that it was important, especially during team selection. Selecting the at-large teams and seeding the bracket are two separate, but similar processes.
We will find out just how important that metric is this season after Miami-Ohio lost to UMass in the opening round of the MAC Tournament.
The RedHawks are 28-1 (only games against D1 teams count). The loss to UMass is Q3. No team with two or fewer losses has ever been left out of the NCAA Tournament.
However, since I started collecting data in 1994, there have been only five teams that needed an at-large bid with one or two losses and the last time was in 2012. Miami's resume does not look anything like those.
Miami's info is NET based. Others are RPI-based.
| Year | Team | Record | Rank | SOS | Seed |
|---|---|---|---|---|---|
| 2012 | Syracuse | 31-2 | 1 | 15 | 1 |
| 2012 | Kentucky | 32-2 | 2 | 17 | 1 |
| 2006 | George Washington | 26-2 | 37 | 212 | 8 |
| 2004 | St. Joseph's | 27-1 | 3 | 46 | 1 |
| 1996 | Kentucky | 28-2 | 1 | 3 | 1 |
| 2026 | Miami-OH | 28-1 | 64 | 340* | ? |
As you can see, Miami looks a lot different, even when compared to GW. If Miami is an at-large team, the RedHawks' SOS, regardless of where it ends up, will be ranked over 100 places below the current record (Charleston, 1994, 229). The worst SOS ranking for an at-large team in the NET era was Belmont in 2019 at 199th.
Manhattan in 1995 is the only team to get an at-large bid with no quad 1 games, but was 4-0 vs quad 2. Akron was the only Q2 game on the RedHawks' team sheet until recently, when Wright State moved up.
However, the one metric that stands out in Miami's favor is WAB. Miami ranks 37th as of this morning. That would lower than before but still their best metric. The lowest ranked team in the WAB last year to be left out was West Virginia (43). North Carolina was 42nd.
The RedHawks will now be the test case as to whether a team can get an at-large bid largely on WAB alone.
Feel free to comment. You can e-mail me at jppalm@palmbrackets.com or find me on social media. I will be on Twitter, er, X (@jppalm85) and BlueSky (@jppalm85.bsky.social), and LinkedIn. I am also on Facebook. All constructive feedback is appreciated.
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